Awards Season Explained: Key Dates & How They Could Impact The Race To The 2025 Oscars (2024)

Awards season never really ends. Even though the Oscars typically mark the conclusion of one season, the next has already begun by the time the Academy hands out those little gold men. Predicting awards has become a cottage industry in its own right, a way to gamify the race to the Oscars by determining who has the best odds of clinching the win on Hollywood's biggest night.

To predict these things accurately, pundits look at major film festivals, box office performance, and, eventually, precursor awards to see which films are gathering the right amount of momentum to carry them to awards glory. To gain this momentum, studios launch For Your Consideration (FYC) campaigns based on their strongest contenders that can push a film over the finish line. Below, we dive into the year-round cycle of awards season, pointing out key events that can influence the race to the Oscars.

The Next Year's Awards Season Begins Before The Previous Year's Oscars Even Air

Early Contenders Start Making Themselves Known In January

Though awards season kicks into overdrive when fall begins, January is when the first contenders for the next season begin to emerge thanks to the Sundance Film Festival that happens every January. In previous years, films like Manchester By The Sea, Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, and Past Lives have all debuted at the Park City, Utah festival, often more than a year before they'll be competing at the Oscars.

This year, Sundance's slate was a little lighter. Though some films from this year's fest may show up in precursor awards run by critics' circles and individual guilds, not many films from Sundance 2024 seem poised to make a splash at the Oscars. Jesse Eisenberg wrote, directed, and stars in A Real Pain, which held its premiere at the festival and will likely compete in several major categories including Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor for Kieran Culkin, and Best Picture.

About a month after Sundance, the Berlin International Film Festival (AKA Berlinale) takes place in February, introducing a slew of key international films that could become major players. It isn't until May, though, at the Cannes Film Festival, where other early contenders make their debut. Cannes is perhaps the most prestigious of all festivals where international films and major Hollywood blockbusters premiere side-by-side. A rapturous reception at Cannes can give a film the momentum it needs to soar through the rest of the year to awards glory.

Take this year's controversial Netflix movie Emilia Pérez which premiered at Cannes to mostly rapturous reviews before winning the Best Actress prize at the fest, where the jury led by Greta Gerwig gave all four actresses - Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez, and Adriana Paz - the honor. Emilia Pérez faced some backlash upon its release, but it is still a major player in many categories this year.

Sean Baker's Anora also premiered at Cannes this year, going on to win the Palme d'Or and earn raves at various other festivals, including Tellruide and Toronto. The star of that film, Mikey Madison, is the current frontrunner for Best Actress, but the film could be a major player in plenty of other categories. It's not always easy for a film to maintain momentum throughout the year, but as awards season takes shape, there are plenty of theatrical releases and films from Sundance and Cannes that manage to make a big enough impact to warrant a continued campaign once fall rolls around.

Sundance, Berlinale, and Cannes are not direct bellwethers for the Oscars. Just because a film does well at these festivals does not mean it will end up on Academy members' ballots. Take Titane for example, a French body horror film that won the Palme d'Or in 2021. That film did not even make the shortlist for Best International Feature. Still, these festivals can be a good indicator of what cinephiles, critics, and members of the industry will be keeping an eye on throughout the year in the lead up to the big ceremony.

Awards Season Truly Begins In September

From There, It's A Sprint To The Finish Line

There are three key fall festivals that kick off awards season in earnest: the Venice International Film Festival, the Telluride Film Festival, and the Toronto International Film Festival. Here, key films from Sundance, Berlinale, and Cannes can reappear to remind audiences of their power, but these events often introduce key contenders that will fight for awards glory.

More often than not, many Best Picture nominees end up making the rounds at at least one of these fall festivals, and it seems safe to say the same for this year. 2024 editions of these festivals saw the premieres of major contenders like The Brutalist, The Room Next Door, Conclave, September 5, I'm Still Here, and The Wild Robot, while previously mentioned contenders like Anora, Emilia Pérez, and A Real Pain also screened.

Because these festivals are attended by many in the industry - stars, critics, behind-the-scenes folks like directors, producers, and more - the response to the films out of these festivals can indicate where the temperature is at for the industry, as narratives that will continue through the season begin to take shape. By the time early December rolls around and critics groups begin announcing their shortlists and nominations, these narratives have coalesced into FYC campaigns with the full weight of the studio behind them.

Critics' groups are usually the first to hand out awards and honors, which can boost a film's profile before voting begins for industry groups like the writer, actor, director, and producer guilds. Key critics' groups include the New York Film Critics Circle, the African American Film Critics Association, and the Critics' Choice Association. The taste of these groups does not always align with the Academy's as there is often minimal overlap between the industry and them, but it can be a pretty good indication of where sentiments lie overall.

Industry awards typically take place at the top of the year before the Oscars, with the Writers' Guild, the Screen Actors' Guild, the Producers' Guild, and more announcing their nominees and eventual winners. These are more accurate indicators because of the industry overlap - plenty of people in these guilds are also members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which hosts the Oscars. The BAFTAs, the awards ceremony held by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, is another accurate bellwether for the Oscars, often because of its proximity to that ceremony and the overlap between the two groups.

Despite the year-long predictions, nothing is ever a surefire guarantee, but that's what makes it fun. There have been plenty of Oscars surprises when the ceremony inevitably rolls around. It's impossible to predict the voting trends of nearly 10,000 unique members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, but people will continue to try and, more often than not, someone out there is going to get it right.

Below, check out a full calendar of upcoming key dates for the 2025 awards season that culminates with the Oscars on March 2, 2025.

The Oscars | Academy Awards

Location

Dolby Theatre - Los Angeles, California

Description

The Academy Awards, AKA the Oscars, is a film awards show that honors excellence in filmmaking, acting, and various fields associated with making movies. The ceremony will be in its 95th year in 2023, with Jimmy Kimmel returning to host the event. The Oscars typically air around March and accept movies for nomination that were released between January 1st and December 31st of the year being honored.